| A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area Contributor(s): Federal Reserve Board (Author) |
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ISBN: 1511660511 ISBN-13: 9781511660518 Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform OUR PRICE: $12.30 Product Type: Paperback Published: April 2015 |
| Additional Information |
| BISAC Categories: - Political Science | International Relations - General |
| Physical Information: 0.07" H x 8.5" W x 11.02" (0.24 lbs) 36 pages |
| Descriptions, Reviews, Etc. |
| Publisher Description: We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction betweenmacroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables arenecessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explainedby the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latterbeing released in a more timely manner. Second, the model tracks well the dynamicsof trade variables conditional on the path of macroeconomic variables during the greatrecession; this result makes our model a reliable tool for scenario analysis. Third, wequantify the contribution of the most important euro area trading partners (regions)to the aggregate extra euro area developments: we evaluate the impact of an increaseof the external demand from a specific region on the extra euro area trade. |